Lies About the Death Count of Schoolchildren from Covid-19 or the Delta Variant — The True Numbers are Up-To-Date and Available From CDC and Other Sources

Source CDC, Public Domain, https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#demographics

Let’s start off with what NPR had to say:

In states where data was available, less than 2% of all child COVID-19 cases required hospitalization and 0.00% to 0.03% were fatal.
From NPR, Updated August 10, 2021, 3:01 PM ET

Averaged out, most data seem to show a death rate in children already infected to be about 0.01 percent. Now please pay attention! 0.01% is the same as 0.0001. That’s the fraction of already infected children who end up dying. That means for every 10,000 children infected by Covid-19, even the Delta variant, one will die. That’s a minuscule death rate.

I calculate and write about these kinds of data and facts become I grow weary of the uninformed and the misinformed. Still, I never completely trust my own logic, so I research the things I’m going to write about, and I don’t pointedly look only for those who might agree.

Most people aren’t as confident in their math as I am, but I wouldn’t be doing this math if I hadn’t noticed other reasons to think I should take a close look. Truth be told the percentages involved in discussing Covid-19 are so small they shouldn’t even be attempted. This is not a deadly disease compared to, for instance, the Spanish Flu.

So why does everybody think everybody else on Earth is dying from coronavirus. The answer is “negativity bias.” And no, I’m not going to expand on that concept this time. But it’s true, and it bends the truth terribly.

I’d rather you looked at some of my sources. All data come from reports made in the past 1 to 3 weeks.

C’mon. Get vaccinated. Wear a mask indoors at least. Stop fretting about Covid-19 and stop thinking Delta is something different. It isn’t. It’s Covid-19 after a small mutation made Covid-19 stronger, and now people are calling it “Delta.” I’d call it “Covid-21,” but nobody asked me.

Do I know what I’m talking about? In the case of data and statistics, yes. I got scholarships and awards and stuff like that at university because I went through most science and math courses and made zero math errors, ever.

When it comes to human misdirection due to cognitive biases, I get it, but even for me it’s a new concept. It sure explains a lot of the stupidity and misdirection I see going around out there, but I’m not yet an expert.

When it comes to the question, “Could a new, even worse strain of SARS-CoV-2 break out and kill 10% of all people on Earth?” I would have to say that it’s highly unlikely.

Why? Just a hunch really, but with all the various coronaviruses going around, all around the world, people have been exposed to a lot of viruses. When that happens, and it’s always happening, the people exposed the most also develop cross-immunities that make it really hard for a virus to kill them.

A good percentage of common colds are coronaviruses. And a higher percentage of people on earth have been exposed to Covid-19 than is thought. In a lot of cases people don’t inhale enough particles to get sick, but their immune systems still put a little post-it wherever the systems put stickers, and they never forget that particular strain.

So if I’m dead wrong and this winter 10% of all people get sick and die from covid, then I’ll be very apologetic. The only expert who could get this right first try is a future historian who does a retrospective study of the past 20 years, clear back to December 2019.

I only speak up because I’m pissed at the misinformation and outright stupidity I’m seeing out there. I couldn’t be doing as much harm as some people and agencies that are being . . . “dishonest” I suppose is the word. Some of them are supposed to be the experts.

Fred

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Fred Ermlich

Fred Ermlich

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Living in rural Panamá — non-extractive, non-capitalistic. Expat USA. Scientist, writer, researcher, teacher. STEM mentor +languages. Gargoylplex@protonmail.com